Public Administration in a VUCA World: Vulnerability as a Starting Point

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ASPA as an organization.

By Mauricio Covarrubias
April 11, 2025

In recent decades, the concept of a VUCA world—an acronym for Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity—has gained relevance in leadership, strategy and, more recently, public administration. Although the term originated in the U.S. military sphere after the Cold War, its application has spread to various sectors due to its explanatory power in a global environment characterized by constant change, interdependent crises and ongoing disruption.

Market volatility, political uncertainty, the complexity of social problems and the ambiguity of regulatory frameworks converge to profoundly challenge the State’s ability to act effectively and legitimately. In this context, the vulnerability of public institutions is no longer an accidental weakness, but a structural condition of the present.

From Stability to Fluidity: The Collapse of the Traditional Paradigm

Traditionally, public administrative systems have been based on ideals of predictability, rational planning and hierarchical control. These assumptions rested on a model of an orderly world, where problems were relatively bounded and solutions—though complex—were ultimately manageable through technical knowledge and legal authority.

However, in a VUCA world, public administration faces problems that have no simple technical solutions, no defined timelines, and no single causes.  These are the so-called wicked problems, as described by Rittel and Webber (1973), whose resolution requires intersectoral approaches, democratic deliberation and a tolerance for uncertainty.

The COVID-19 pandemic was a paradigmatic case: it exposed the State’s limitations in anticipating, coordinating and communicating, while also revealing the urgent need to adapt, innovate and learn on the move. Vulnerability became visible: in health systems, educational policy, government logistics, political leadership and the relationship between the State and society.

The Multiple Dimensions of Vulnerability in Public Administration

The intersection of the VUCA world and public administration can be understood through various forms of vulnerability that affect both institutions and public servants:

• Operational vulnerability: stemming from rigid structures that hinder agile responses to abrupt changes. Volatility demands adaptability, yet legal and administrative frameworks often limit such flexibility (Kettl, 2020).
• Epistemological vulnerability: public officials must make decisions based on partial, evolving or contradictory information. Uncertainty challenges the idea that it is possible to govern strictly based on evidence without recognizing the limits of knowledge (Ansell & Boin, 2019).
• Structural vulnerability: many current problems (such as poverty, climate change or migration) require inter-institutional and intergovernmental action. Complexity exposes coordination failures and governance gaps within the public sector (Peters, 2015).
• Moral vulnerability: in ambiguous scenarios, ethical dilemmas intensify. It is not always clear what the right decision is or who will be most affected by it.  This demands leadership grounded in ethical sensitivity, integrity and deliberative capacity (Olsen, 2010).

Vulnerability as a Lever for Transformation

Acknowledging these vulnerabilities does not mean surrendering—it means embracing a new way of understanding the role of the State in the 21st century. In a VUCA environment, public administration must abandon the illusion of total control and adopt a more adaptive, resilient and people-centered logic.

In this regard, several authors and recent experiences point to an emerging governance paradigm in which:

• Institutional learning is continuous, driven by experimentation, failure and iteration. In a rapidly changing world, public institutions must embrace adaptive cycles of trial, feedback and refinement, rather than rigid plans (Sabel & Zeitlin, 2012).
• Collaboration is essential, both across government levels and with civil society, academia and the private sector. Tackling complex issues requires shared knowledge, coordinated efforts and cross-sector partnerships (Torfing et al., 2012).
• Empathy and active listening enhance legitimacy, enabling the design of policies grounded in real social needs. Engaging citizens not only improves outcomes but also strengthens trust and civic belonging (Bovens & Zouridis, 2002).
• Public innovation is a necessity, not a luxury. Facing problems that outpace traditional responses demands creative thinking, flexible structures and user-centered solutions to remain effective and relevant. Thus, vulnerability can become a source of institutional innovation, if addressed with humility, openness and a forward-looking vision.

Conclusion: Resilient Leadership for Turbulent Times

In the VUCA world, the ideal public servant is no longer the technocrat who controls everything, but the adaptive leader who listens, learns, collaborates and acts with integrity amid uncertainty. This new figure acknowledges their own vulnerability and turns it into a tool for building trust, fostering cooperation and strengthening public resilience.

As Heifetz (1994) suggests, leading in complex times is not about offering all the answers, but about creating the conditions for communities to face their challenges together. Public administration in the 21st century must walk this path: less pretense of omniscience, more capacity for dialogue; less control, more learning; less distance, more humanity.

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Author: Mauricio Covarrubias is Professor at the National Institute of Public Administration in Mexico.  He is co-founder of the International Academy of Political-Administrative Sciences (IAPAS).  He is the founder and Editor of the International Journal of Studies on Educational Systems (RIESED). Member of the National System of Researchers of CONAHCYT.  He received his Ph.D. from the National Autonomous University of Mexico.  He can be reached at [email protected] and followed on Twitter @OMCovarrubias 

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