Does History Repeat Itself? An Enduring Question for Decision Makers and Managers

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ASPA as an organization.

By Stephen R. Rolandi
March 20, 2026

“History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.” – Mark Twain (1835-1910)

“Nor for the past alone – for meanings to the future.” – Walt Whitman (1819-1892)

One of the most fascinating and frequent topics studied by scholars, practitioners and students of public administration is that of decision-making, particularly in crisis situations. In making decisions, decision-makers try to predict a likely outcome of an option under consideration, especially if they subscribe to the rational model of decision-making. What benefitted President John F. Kennedy during the Cuban Missile Crisis in October of 1962 was his understanding of history and the lessons derived from it in making the decisions during that epic moment in world history.

The famous quotation often attributed to Mark Twain (a/k/a Samuel Langhorne Clemens), the American writer, humorist and essayist, suggests that while exact historic events rarely occur, the patterns, themes and human behaviors of a past era frequently echo in a future or present era. Walt Whitman, one of the most famous writers in American history, cited in the above quote, meant that history and personal experiences should not be studied to dwell on the past, but rather to derive lessons and meanings that guide, inspire and shape the future.

While these quotations continue to raise questions about history, the question of whether history repeats itself remains a popular summary of how humanity tends to repeat its mistakes in similar, rather than identical, ways.

Whether or not history repeats itself remains a complex and debated topic, and much has been written about it.

This debate refers to the concept of historical recurrence, that is, in the study of history, similar events are sometimes found to re-occur. This question also appears in discussions of philosophy, social theory, politics and public discourse.

The concept has been applied to various levels of human history, from the rise and fall of empires to patterns in the history of a given polity (societies, constitutions, governments, etc.), or to any two specific events that might have a striking similarity. Recognition of these patterns can provide valuable insights into current and future challenges, suggesting that similar events may resonate across different eras.

Ancient historians and philosophers who wrote about recurrence were largely concerned with cosmology (the study of the origins and development of the universe) rather than historical recurrence. Some of these ancient writers included Polybius (ca. 200-118 B.C./B.C.E.), the Greek Hellenistic historian; Dionysius of Halicarnassus (ca. 60 B.C./B.C.E. – 7 B.C./B.C.E.), the Greek historian and rhetorician; Confucius (ca. 551 B.C./B.C.E. – 479 B.C./B.C.E.), the Chinese philosopher and paragon of ancient Chinese sages; and many others. Similar views were expressed by writers such as Niccolò Machiavelli (1469-1527), author of The Prince.

Some historians and philosophers, however, have held alternative views on this question. For example, philosophers like Voltaire (1694-1778) suggested that while events change, human nature remains constant, leading people to repeat the same mistakes. Karl Marx (1818-1883), who we encounter in political and economic theory, famously observed that history repeats itself “first as a tragedy, second as a farce.”

The noted British professor, author, historian and philosopher Arnold J. Toynbee (1889-1975) subscribed to the unilinear progression, or spiral, model of history, believing that history did not strictly repeat itself. Instead, Toynbee argued that societies respond to challenges in unique ways, leading to evolutionary rather than repetitive outcomes.

A somewhat similar view has been expressed by the noted American historian, Pulitzer Prize winner, and author Jon Meacham (1969- ). Meacham, a professor of the American Presidency at Vanderbilt University and Canon Historian of the Washington National Cathedral in Washington, DC, has suggested that while history may repeat itself, he emphasizes that it rhymes. He argues that while past events may not be identical, they can share similar patterns and themes, particularly in the context of democracy and political challenges.

Thus, the debate continues. My own view is that the underlying dynamics of human experience often lead to analogous situations re-emerging over time, but they do not occur exactly as they did in a prior period.

What I personally take away from this discussion is that we need to continuously learn the lessons derived from historical events and distinguish among similar events in order to arrive at more informed decisions and more effective results.

For further reading:

• Carl N. Degler, Out of Our Past: The Forces That Shaped Modern America (1970)
• Richard E. Neustadt and Ernest R. May, Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision-Makers (1986)
• Edward H. Carr, What is History? (1961)
• Graham T. Allison and Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (1999)

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Author: Stephen R. Rolandi, a native of Brooklyn, New York City, is a graduate of New York University with degrees in history, political science and public administration, the latter degree from NYU’s Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service. His career has spanned government, the not-for-profit sector and higher education, covering entry-level, managerial and senior executive positions. He has held numerous volunteer leadership positions in civic, historical, alumni and professional associations in Washington, DC, New York City and Westchester County, including the American Society for Public Administration. He is an adjunct professor of public administration at Pace University and John Jay College of Criminal Justice (CUNY) and is a frequent writer and commentator on issues affecting the nation and New York State. He can be reached at [email protected] or [email protected] or 914.441.3399

 

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