Governing With High Beams in the VUCA Fog

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ASPA as an organization.

By Mauricio Covarrubias
May 9, 2025

In a world defined by volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA), governments can no longer rely on dogma or the illusion of absolute control. This column explores how adaptive leadership, diversity, transparency and continuous learning are the keys to turning vulnerability into strategic advantage, building resilient institutions that are not afraid to say, “We don’t know but we are learning.”

On today’s political chessboard, uncertainty is no longer the exception; it is the rule. Pandemics, technological disruption, climate crises and social fractures have turned the world into a stage summarized by four letters: VUCA. Governing in this environment is not about applying old recipes but about learning to move forward in the fog. It is essentially about governing with high beams.

High beams don’t eliminate the fog, but they let us see a little further down the road. It means recognizing that uncertainty is not a temporary obstacle but the permanent condition of the 21st century. Here comes the first mindset shift: abandoning the illusion of absolute control. Simply put, no matter how much we plan, there will always be variables beyond our reach. Pretending otherwise is not only naive but dangerous.

Past governments relied on rigid hierarchies, unchanging protocols and leaders who pretended to have all the answers. Today, these models are crumbling under the weight of rapid change. In this context, adaptability is not a luxury; it’s a necessity. But adapting doesn’t mean improvising blindly; it means building institutional capacities to absorb shocks, learn quickly and adjust course on the fly.

This is where cognitive biases come in. Biases like the illusion of certainty, overconfidence or the rejection of contradictory information are mental shortcuts that have accompanied humanity from the start. They won’t disappear by decree or goodwill. But while innate, they are not destiny. The key lies in designing governments and political systems that don’t deny their existence but contain them, cushion them and ideally render them harmless.

How to achieve this? First, by institutionalizing diversity. Diversity is not just an ethical imperative; it’s a survival strategy. Homogeneous teams tend to reinforce their own ideas and blind spots. In contrast, when governments integrate different voices across gender, age, discipline and ideology, they increase their ability to detect weak signals, anticipate risks and generate more robust solutions. Diversity doesn’t eliminate uncertainty but makes it more navigable.

Second, by embracing radical transparency. Transparency is not just about accountability; it’s also a tool to align expectations, build trust and detect errors early. A government that dares to say, “We don’t know but we are learning,” does not show weakness but institutional maturity. Twenty-first-century citizens value honesty over perfection. While they punish unacknowledged mistakes, they reward agility in correcting them.

The third ingredient is continuous learning. Traditional governments operated under the paradigm of “plan and execute.” Today, the formula is more like “experiment, learn, adapt.” This requires strengthening monitoring capabilities, data analysis, policy evaluation and dynamic adjustment. Above all, it requires leaders who know how to listen. Active listening to citizens, experts, social actors and international peers becomes a competitive advantage in a world where no one has a monopoly on the right answers.

Abandoning the dogma of absolute control entails another profound shift: understanding that real power no longer lies in imposing certainties but in intelligently managing uncertainties. Leaders who understand this design flexible systems that allow for small failures to avoid catastrophic ones. They innovate with pilot projects, make reversible decisions whenever possible and create institutional spaces for critical reflection.

The crucial question is not whether biases will be present in public decision-making—that’s inevitable—but how to render them harmless. The most resilient systems are not those that eliminate error but those that detect it early, fix it quickly and turn it into learning. This applies to national governments, city halls, international organizations and civil society alike.

We see an illustrative example in cities facing climate change. None have a magic recipe for adapting to extreme events, but the most successful share a trait: they create learning networks, experiment with local solutions, listen to vulnerable communities and adjust their plans based on evidence. Another example lies in governments using behavioral science tools to redesign public policies, not assuming citizens are perfectly rational but incorporating their irrationality productively.

Governing with high beams is no empty metaphor. It’s an urgent call to shift from heroic leadership to adaptive leadership. The former is obsessed with maintaining the facade of control; the latter with building systems that survive when certainties collapse. The former rewards rigidity and punishes doubt; the latter understands that doubt is part of collective intelligence.

Ultimately, governing in the VUCA fog is a challenge that demands new skills, new institutions and above all, a new humility. It’s not about waiting for uncertainty to disappear but learning to dance with it. Because in this world, as the most resilient societies know, the winner is not the one who never falls but the one who rises quickly and better prepared.

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Author: Mauricio Covarrubias is Professor at the National Institute of Public Administration in Mexico.  He is co-founder of the International Academy of Political-Administrative Sciences (IAPAS).  He is the founder and Editor of the International Journal of Studies on Educational Systems (RIESED). Member of the National System of Researchers of CONAHCYT.  He received his Ph.D. from the National Autonomous University of Mexico.  He can be reached at [email protected] and followed on Twitter @OMCovarrubias

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