Recklessly Chasing Efficiency will Leave Americans at the Mercy of Low-Probability, High-Consequence Events

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ASPA as an organization.

By Nathan Myers
March 10, 2025

Recently, it was reported that the Trump administration was scrambling to rehire federal employees that had been terminated by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The personnel involved were tasked with safeguarding U.S. nuclear weapons and helping to manage the on-going H5N1 avian influenza outbreak. These actions have already been criticized for illustrating the short-sightedness of the DOGE approach to cutting government spending. This is a particular problem when it comes to the management of low-probability, high-consequence events.

Public administration scholars have long expressed concern about the creation of a hollow state, wherein the capabilities of government institutions would be eroded and no longer be able to serve the public. However, previously this was attributed to government agency responsibilities being contracted out to the public and/or nonprofit sectors. In this case, the federal workforce is being drastically reduced, funding frozen and programs/agencies eliminated with no plan for filling the gaps. This is what makes the examples of the avian influenza and nuclear stockpile experts so troubling. Outside of government, who would handle these responsibilities?

Government reform scholars Joaquin and Greitens used the example of the COVID-19 pandemic to illustrate the risks that come with the loss of administrative capacity. They define administrative capacity as consisting of five elements: (1) problem solving, (2) management, (3) administrative conservatorship, (4) communication and (5) accountability. All of these elements are affected by the elimination of personnel and programs without proper analysis. However, perhaps most troubling in terms of managing low-probability, high-consequence events is the degrading of administrative conservatorship. This was defined by Larry Terry as the characteristic of an organization connecting people and mission through its actions. Slashing of agencies without proper consideration can only harm their sense of mission, while mass firings send the message that the country places no value in federal personnel, regardless of role. In the event of a national emergency, this type of demoralization can only weaken the response. 

Prior to President Trump’s reelection, the U.S. was already exhibiting a lack of attention to low-probability, high-consequence threats. Congress, for example, has still not passed a reauthorization of the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act. Since 2006, this legislation has provided for key programs associated with preparedness for a range of threats. While the funding for some key programs has continued, its continuation seems tenuous given recent spending cuts. Congress voting to continue this legislation would be an important statement of its importance to our national security.

Since President Trump’s inauguration, in addition to the employment terminations mentioned above, we have job losses in other security areas, such as the FBI and the National Institutes of Health. There have been questions about the continuation of FEMA, as well as whether the federal government should continue to be a leader in emergency management. The National Weather Service, which has consistently improved its ability to predict pending weather emergencies, has also come under scrutiny. 

Should these organizations be above reproach or scrutiny? No. Could they be reformed to make them function more effectively and efficiently? Of course. However, that is the crux of the problem when it comes to DOGE’s approach to improving efficiency. As illustrated by their firing of federal personnel in nuclear and public health security areas, they are focused on making government smaller, not better. The government may be made to do its work less expensively, but it still must accomplish its mission. And securing the safety of its citizens should always be at the core of the federal mission. 

With this in mind, it is important to consider that there are many people in the federal workforce whose efforts we don’t see on a daily basis. They are conducting research, training, managing stockpiles and carrying out any number of functions that will be critical to a rapid and successful response to a low-probability, high-consequence event. This could take the shape of another pandemic or a nuclear accident. It could be a terrorist attack, a volcanic eruption in a highly-populated area or even an asteroid strike. 

There are thousands of federal employees whose work protects us from threats every day. And then there are those working to protect us from the threats on a scale many of us don’t want to contemplate. The value of these positions cannot simply be viewed in terms of immediate political and economic gains from shrinking government. The value must also considered in light of who we will turn to for advice and action if the unthinkable occurs.

Preparedness and efficiency are not at odds. Preparedness is what helps us to weather major emergencies while limiting the costs in terms of money, property, and human life. However, more fundamentally government cannot be efficient if it is not carrying out its core priorities. Government must be an institution with a mission to secure the lives of its people and the continuation of society. This mission cannot be accomplished if we hollow out our administrative agencies and erase our administrative capacity. In a time of grave national crisis, a hollow state will not save us and the illusion of efficiency will be no comfort.   

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Author: Nathan Myers, Ph.D. is a Professor in the Department of Political Science and Director of the Master of Public Administration at Indiana State University. His areas of research include public policy, public health emergency preparedness, and the governance of biotechnology. He is the author of Pandemics and Polarization: Implications of Partisan Budgeting for Responding to Public Health Emergencies and numerous related articles. Myers is a graduate of Knox College (BA), University of Illinois at Springfield (MPA), and University of Nevada, Las Vegas (Ph.D.) Email: [email protected]; Blue Sky: @nagremy1980.bsky.social 

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