As Election Draws Near, Immigration Remains a Top Issue

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ASPA as an organization.

The VCU Wilder School Office of Research and Outreach
August 5, 2024

As the November 2024 election draws near, we are again seeing an increase in conversations and debates over key public policies. These debates are often contentious, as candidates strive to strike a balance between their own opinions and morals and those of their constituents. If elected, each of their decisions will have a lasting impact on our country and communities, and they must convince the public that their decisions will bring about the most positive changes. While the most prominent of these debates may be taking place at the national level, the perspectives of individuals and policymakers at the state and local levels should not be overlooked.

One of the key issues being highlighted in debates is immigration. To get a better understanding of how the public feels about this issue, and to help inform policymakers of public opinion on immigration, the July 2024 Wilder School Commonwealth Poll asked participants for their thoughts on immigration at the southern border of the United States, as well as for their thoughts on the extent to which immigration policy will influence their vote in November.

The poll obtained telephone interviews with a representative sample of 809 adults, ages 18 or older, living in Virginia. Telephone interviews were conducted by landline (202) and cell phone (607—including 426 without a landline telephone). The survey was conducted by Responsive Management. Interviews were conducted in English from June 24, 2024, to July 3, 2024, and had a margin of error of +/- 4.81 percentage points.

To begin, poll respondents were asked whether they consider illegal immigrants crossing the southern border of the United States to be a major problem, minor problem or not a problem at all. Overall, over half of respondents (52 percent) said that they consider it a major problem, 33 percent said that they see immigration as a minor problem and just 10 percent said that it is not a problem.

Unsurprisingly, this issue was strongly polarized by political party—Democrats largely considered immigration to be a minor problem (56 percent) while 86 percent of Republicans and 47 percent of Independents considered it a major problem. There were also large differences based on the race of respondents with White individuals most likely to say it is a major problem (62 percent) while approximately half of Black respondents (51 percent) said it is a minor problem.

In addition, the poll asked participants what the most important issue impacting their vote in the November 2024 presidential election will be. The top issue for Virginians was the rising cost of living (31 percent), followed by women’s reproductive rights (23 percent) and immigration (12 percent). Other issues noted by Virginians included gun control (7 percent), education (6 percent) and taxation (5 percent).

Again, we saw differences between demographic groups in their perspectives on immigration. While the top two issues for Democrats were women’s reproductive rights (42 percent) and the rising cost of living (31 percent), Republicans cited their top issues as the rising cost of living (43 percent) followed by immigration (23 percent). Older individuals (those aged 55 and older) also tended to see immigration as a more pressing issue than younger individuals, as did white individuals compared to racial and ethnic minorities.

These findings from Virginia are aligned with the findings of nationwide polls. A February 2024 Gallup Poll asked what Americans saw as the most important issue facing the country today. Here, immigration ranked number one at 28 percent (followed by government at 20 percent, the economy in general at 12 percent, inflation at 11 percent, poverty at 6 percent and race/race relations at 4 percent).

The Gallup Poll’s findings on immigration were similarly divided by demographic group. Like the Commonwealth Poll, Republicans were more likely than Democrats to say that immigration is a major issue facing America today. Those living in areas most impacted by immigration (e.g. the southern and eastern parts of the country) were also most likely to say that immigration policy was important to them.

As November draws nearer, political candidates at all levels will need to demonstrate a firm stance on immigration policy and more. By listening to their constituents, consulting polls such as the ones referred to in this article and staying up-to-date on the latest news and developments related to immigration, candidates can help ensure that they are making decisions with the interests of all their constituents in mind.

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Author: The Wilder School’s Center for Public Policy advances research and training that informs public policy and decisionmaking to improve our communities. Drawing on the wide-ranging expertise of Wilder School faculty, we provide services including leadership development and training, economic and policy impact analysis, survey insights and program evaluation to clients in governments, nonprofits, businesses and the public, across Virginia and beyond. Twitter: @VCUWilderSchool

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