As Election Nears, the Economy Remains a Top Issue

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ASPA as an organization.

By The VCU Wilder School Office of Research and Outreach
October 7, 2024

As the 2024 presidential election draws near, the candidates and their campaigns are working hard to understand the primary drivers of how people plan to vote. As part of this effort, public policy polls can help provide insight into how likely people are to vote, for whom they plan to vote and what factors contribute to their voting decision.

In Virginia, the Wilder School Commonwealth Poll is conducted multiple times per year to shed light on the opinions of Virginians. The most recent poll, released in mid-September, asked participants about their voting intentions, the top issues that influence their vote, and their views on how each presidential candidate will handle the United States economy.

This poll obtained telephone interviews with a representative sample of 813 adults, ages 18 or older, living in Virginia. Telephone interviews were conducted by landline (203) and cell phone (610—including 431 without a landline telephone). The survey was conducted by Responsive Management. Interviews were conducted in English from August 26, 2024 to September 6, 2024, and had a margin of error of +/- 5.03 percentage points.

When asked about their voting intentions, 46 percent said that they planned to vote for Kamala Harris while 36 percent said that they planned to vote for Donald Trump. While the economy emerged as the most important issue for Virginians, there were numerous differences based on demographic characteristics. These results are discussed further in the following sections.

Top issues at the voting booth

When asked “what is the most important issue impacting how you vote?,” participants overall said that the three most important issues were the rising cost of living (38 percent), women’s reproductive rights (21 percent) and immigration (10 percent). These priorities overall remain unchanged from the VCU Wilder School Summer Poll.

Among Democrats, however, priorities have shifted. The September poll found that the most important issue for Democrats at the voting booth is now the cost of living, a shift from women’s reproductive rights being the top issue in the previous poll. The cost of living continues to dominate for Republicans and Independents, with this emerging as the top issue in both the Summer poll and the September poll. The rising cost of living was also a top issue among participants of all races/ethnicities and among both men and women. These findings align with those of national polls, e.g. a recent poll from the Pew Research Center that found that about 81 percent of Americans said that the economy is “very important” to their candidate choice in November.

Trust in the economy

Participants in the September Wilder School Commonwealth Poll were also asked whether they trusted Kamala Harris or Donald Trump more regarding the economy. Voters were nearly tied, with 38 percent trusting Kamala Harris and 37 percent trusting Donald Trump, while 18 percent said that trusted neither. Among Independents, 36 percent said that they trusted Donald Trump more, while 15 percent trusted Kamala Harris more and 34 percent trusted neither.

Again, we see alignment with national polls—a recent AP-NORC poll found that about 40 percent of voters nationwide said that they trust Harris more with the economy, while another 40 percent said that they trusted Trump more. About 10 percent said that they trusted neither, while another 10 percent said that they trusted the two candidates equally.

Looking at demographic breakdowns, the Commonwealth Poll found that those most likely to say that they trusted Harris with the economy were those with a postgraduate or professional degree, those making less than $35,000 annually or more than $100,00 annually, women, Democrats, Black individuals and Hispanic individuals. Conversely, those most likely to say that they trusted Trump more with the economy included those with less than a high school diploma, those making between $70,000 and $100,000 annually, white individuals, men, Republicans, and Independents.

Looking ahead to the election

Polling plays a crucial role in presidential elections, as it provides insight into public opinion and helps to gauge the potential outcome of the race. Polls allow candidates and political parties to assess their strengths and weaknesses, understand key issues that matter most to voters and tailor their strategies accordingly. They also help the media and the public stay informed about shifts in voter sentiment throughout the campaign. While polls are not always perfect predictors of election results, they offer a valuable snapshot of the political landscape at various points in time, helping both the candidates and voters make more informed decisions.

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Author: The Wilder School’s Center for Public Policy advances research and training that informs public policy and decisionmaking to improve our communities. Drawing on the wide-ranging expertise of Wilder School faculty, we provide services including leadership development and training, economic and policy impact analysis, survey insights and program evaluation to clients in governments, nonprofits, businesses and the public, across Virginia and beyond. Twitter: @VCUWilderSchool

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