In Final Days Before the Election, Cost of Living Concerns Remain a Voter Priority

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ASPA as an organization.

By The VCU Wilder School Office of Research and Outreach
October 28, 2024

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, candidates and their supporters are actively working to identify the key factors influencing voter decisions. Public policy polls play a crucial role in this process, offering insights into the likelihood of casting a vote in general, the preferred candidates of likely voters, and the key elements and issues shaping voter decisions.

In this article, we first explore the perspectives of voters in Virginia on what they see as the most important issues when choosing for whom to cast their vote. We then compare these perspectives to findings from nationwide polls, identifying the most important issues to voters across the country as the 2024 presidential election season enters its final days.

Wilder School Commonwealth Poll methodology

The Wilder School Commonwealth Poll is conducted multiple times per year to help shed light on the perspectives of Virginians on a variety of issues, including voting intentions, public health, public safety, education, social equity, and more. The most recent poll, released in early October, focused on the 2024 presidential election and asked participants to share the top issues they consider when choosing which candidate to support.

This poll obtained telephone interviews with a representative sample of 832 adults, ages 18 or older, living in Virginia. Telephone interviews were conducted by landline (200) and cell phone (632—including 453 without a landline telephone). The survey was conducted by Responsive Management. Interviews were conducted in English from September 16, 2024 to September 25, 2024, and had a margin of error of +/- 4.64 percentage points.

Virginia’s top issues

In the October poll, participants were asked to identify the most important issue influencing their vote. The top concerns noted by participants were:

• The rising cost of living (33 percent)
• Women’s reproductive rights (20 percent)
• Immigration (12 percent)
• Gun control (6 percent)
• Education (5 percent)
• An increasing tax burden (3 percent)
• Crime (2 percent)

Additionally, 15 percent of participants said that some other issue was most important to their vote, while three percent said that they did not know or had no opinion.

For the most part, the top priorities remain unchanged from the previous two Wilder School Commonwealth Polls (conducted in September and July). From a partisan perspective, however, there were notable differences. Democrats were most likely to say that the most important issue is women’s reproductive rights (39 percent). In comparison, Republicans and Independents said that their top concern is the rising cost of living, with 45 percent of Republicans and 30 percent of Independents identifying it as their primary issue. Additionally, the rising cost of living was noted as the most important issue among participants of all races and ethnicities, of both men and women, and of participants of all income levels.

Top Issues from a nationwide perspective

Findings from the Virginia polls are similar to those of national polls. An October Gallup Poll found that, of 22 issues, the economy ranked as the top concern among participants. Other top concerns included Democracy, terrorism and national security, Supreme Court justice nominations, immigration, and education. Additionally, the economy was the only issue presented in which more than half of poll participants (52 percent) said that it was “extremely important” to their voting decision.

Trust in the candidates to address economic concerns

Fifty-four percent of Gallup Poll respondents said that they trusted Trump more to handle the economy, compared to 45 percent who said they trusted Harris more. Similarly, the October Wilder School Commonwealth Poll showed that Virginians had more trust in Trump than in Harris to handle the economy (44 percent versus 36 percent, while 13 percent said that they didn’t trust either candidate in this area). In comparison, the September Wilder School Commonwealth Poll found that Virginians were tied in their perspectives of who would better handle the economy, with both Trump and Harris being trusted by 38 percent of poll respondents.

Polling insights in the election’s final days

Polling plays a vital role in the lead-up to elections by offering insights into public opinion and helping gauge the likely outcome of the race. It enables candidates and political parties to evaluate their strengths and weaknesses, identify key issues important to voters, and adjust their strategies accordingly. Polls also keep the media and public informed about shifts in voter sentiment throughout the campaign. While they may not be able to predict the future with complete certainty, polls provide a valuable snapshot of the political landscape at different points in time, aiding both candidates and voters in making informed choices.

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Author: The Office of Public Policy Outreach is part of the Center for Public Policy at Virginia Commonwealth University’s L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs. The office prepares VCU faculty for effective interactions with state and local lawmakers and helps generate and translate academic knowledge into successful public policies for the commonwealth. Email address: [email protected] | Twitter handle: @OPPOatVCU

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