Insights and Analysis of the 2024 Presidential Election

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ASPA as an organization.

The VCU Wilder School Office of Research and Outreach
December 9, 2024

If you found yourself asking, “What just happened?” after the unprecedented and multifaceted 2024 presidential election, you’re not alone. Fortunately, Bob Holsworth, Ph.D., one of Virginia’s foremost political analysts, is here to provide clarity on the results.

A sought-after political analyst, Holsworth is the managing partner of DecideSmart and the founding director of the Wilder School. His expertise on Virginia and national politics has been featured in prominent outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Washington Post and other newspapers nationwide. He has also made appearances on major American television networks and the BBC. Recognized for his influence, Holsworth was named one of the “100 Influentials in Virginia Politics” by Campaigns and Elections magazine.

In a recent virtual Wilder School Lunch and Learn session, Holsworth shared his expert analysis of the strategies, trends and voter demographics that secured President Donald J. Trump a second term in office.

Holsworth analyzed the evolving dynamics of the Democratic ticket, highlighting Vice President Kamala Harris’s rise as the party’s nominee just 100 days before the election. Despite Harris’s efforts to establish her platform and policies, she faced challenges stemming from President Biden’s 40 percent approval rating and widespread concerns about inflation, with nearly 70 percent of Americans reporting moderate to severe financial strain, Holsworth noted.

Key shifts in voter demographics and ideology underpinned Donald Trump’s victory. The Republican Party experienced increased support from Hispanic and female voters, marking a significant change from recent elections.

“Trump’s success on the gender gap was that he had a larger margin among men than Harris did among women,” said Holsworth. “That was something that people did not perceive what was likely to happen in this election.”

Holsworth suggested that Democrats overestimated the impact of abortion rights as a central voting issue. In numerous areas, voters rejected abortion restrictions at the state level but still cast their ballots for Trump. In Virginia, for example, our October Wilder School Commonwealth Poll found that the rising cost of living was the top issue among likely voters, with 33 percent of poll participants citing this as their first concern. Women’s reproductive rights came in second at 20 percent, followed by immigration at 12 percent. Poll participants also said that they trusted Trump more than Harris to handle the economy, with 42 percent saying they trusted Trump more and 38 percent saying that they trusted Harris more.

“They felt comfortable [rejecting abortion restrictions at the state level and also voting for Trump] because they had the opportunity to make a statement and change the state policy but at the same time may have voted for Trump on the economic grounds,” Holsworth said.

He also emphasized the Democrats’ struggles to connect with working-class voters, particularly young men, a gap Republicans exploited by leveraging support from influential figures like Elon Musk and Joe Rogan. Trump’s embrace of unconventional media strategies, including podcasting, helped broaden his appeal. In contrast, traditional Democratic approaches like door-to-door canvassing appeared less effective.

The GOP’s success extended beyond swing states, with Holsworth noting a nationwide rightward shift. “Almost 90 percent of the counties in the country moved more Republican. [It] didn’t mean that they had a Republican majority, but they moved rightward in their direction. And very similar things happened in Virginia. There are very few counties and localities in Virginia that actually moved toward the Democratic side in this election, compared to 2020.”

Holsworth also examined factors shaping voter behavior, campaign strategies and redistricting, as well as their broader implications for national politics. During a discussion moderated by Professor and Associate Dean Robyn McDougle, Ph.D., architect of the Wilder School Commonwealth Poll, he addressed audience questions and reflected on how the poll had accurately anticipated the election results. These questions included:

• Are voters in the United States are ready for a woman to be president? (to which Holsworth noted how Hillary Clinton won the popular vote and Harris came close, suggesting that gender was not the primary issue);
• What will the incoming administration do in regards to NATO? (Holsworth said that the war in Ukraine and potential negotiations will be the biggest focus here, and that Donald Trump may take a different approach to foreign policy that we’ve seen in recent years);
• What is the future of professionals in public administration as conversations about government efficiency and the federal workforce are starting to arise? (Holsworth said that the biggest challenge now is the increased politicization of government workers, especially at the federal level, and that there’s concern about current workers being replaced with those with greater political allegiance).

Watch the full recording of the lunch and learn here.

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Author: The Wilder School’s Center for Public Policy advances research and training that informs public policy and decisionmaking to improve our communities. Drawing on the wide-ranging expertise of Wilder School faculty, we provide services including leadership development and training, economic and policy impact analysis, survey insights and program evaluation to clients in governments, nonprofits, businesses and the public, across Virginia and beyond. Twitter: @VCUWilderSchool

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