Risk Assessment, Hazard Mitigation and “Normal Accidents”: The Case of Camp Mystic

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ASPA as an organization.

By Nathan Myers
August 11, 2025

As the U.S. continues to experience regular weather-related emergencies, it is worth considering how the views of Charles Perrow can help us to better understand these events. Perrow is most widely noted as the author of the book “Normal Accidents,” a highly influential book in the study of disasters within organizations. Perrow defined accidents as normal because “given system characteristics, multiple unexpected interactions of failures are inevitable.” These failures can result from policies, procedures and governance, particularly in situations where different levels of government fail to hold others accountable. 

Perrow’s examples of “normal accidents” mostly involve human efforts to either manufacture, transport or extract something. Therefore, do disasters involving weather-related incidents apply as such incidents are not initiated through intentional action by human beings? To consider this, we will look at the recent tragedy at Camp Mystic in Texas. Flooding at the camp in the predawn hours of July 4th claimed the lives of 27 campers and an owner of the camp. Perrow writes that normal accidents are often borne of a combination of factors, including human error, mechanical failure, environment, design of the system and procedures used.

News accounts of the events following the emergence of a potential flooding threat at the camp suggest that all of these elements contributed to the loss of life at the camp. Not recognizing the severity of the flooding risk earlier is indicative of human error. The failure of the cabins to maintain structural integrity (as seen in the cabin doors breaking)  in order to protect the campers inside could be deemed mechanical failure in Perrow’s framework. Issues with system design that could be viewed as contributing factors include the lack of a rapid communication system among camp staff, the county’s lack of an emergency warning system and timeliness and/or accessibility of National Weather Service alerts. Procedural issues include the lack of established protocols for evacuating cabins. However, it is the environmental component that we will focus on as the camp was located in a flood-prone area, with inadequate mitigation of flood risk.

Federal regulators repeatedly granted requests to remove buildings from their 100-year flood map. In 2013, 15 camp buildings were removed from the flood map. These buildings were in the area of the camp devastated by the July 4^th flooding. Additional camp buildings were granted exemptions from the map in 2019 and 2020, although these buildings were in an area less affected by the recent flooding. This speaks to human error exacerbating environmental risk by discounting the risk of the camp experiencing a once-in-a-century flood. According to an independent analysis of the FEMA flood maps, even the danger to those areas considered to be lower risk may be underestimated. 

News accounts of the story also raise two important procedural questions. First, is the process to get the flood risk lines redrawn sufficiently rigorous? Second, are facilities treated equitably during this evaluation process? The latter question is particularly relevant as, according to news accounts, county authorities allowed camp expansion to continue despite much of the camp still designated by FEMA as being on a flood plain and subject to strict oversight. Some suggest that the expansion moved forward at least in part due to the relationship of the camp owners with influential citizens in the State of Texas.

Some argue that the loss of life in the flooding is more attributable to an unprecedented act of nature than any systemic failures. However, when tragic events like this occur which involve loss of life, particularly children, it is incumbent upon us to question whether or not the systems intended to prevent such events are functioning properly. In the case of Camp Mystic, there is some indication that human error and improper procedure contributed to an unsafe environment, with the camp receiving inadequate oversight to make sure all prudent precautions were taken in the event of a severe flood. While some public officials have argued against focusing on what errors led to the disaster, as discussed by Perrow and other organizational and management theorists it is important to take stock of any systemic failures that contributed to these terrible losses in hopes of preventing more in the future. 

A key takeaway in regard to examining the causes of this disaster and preventing such tragedies in the future is the importance of the federalist system and the need for oversight at the federal, state and local levels. Rather than stepping back from their responsibilities in the emergency management field, the federal government needs to reassert its responsibility to not only respond to disasters, but enforce adequate regulations to recognize significant risks. State and local governments must serve as a check on federal decisions, while at the same time contributing important local knowledge. A well-functioning system of federal accountability is vital to maintain systems and procedures to prevent human error and mechanical failure while recognizing and mitigating environmental risks. Some accidents may be “normal,” but with proper assessment, oversight and regulation, the public can be better protected.    

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 Author: Nathan Myers, Ph.D. is a Professor in the Department of Political Science and Director of the Master of Public Administration at Indiana State University. His areas of research include public policy, public health emergency preparedness, and the governance of biotechnology. He is the author of Pandemics and Polarization: Implications of Partisan Budgeting for Responding to Public Health Emergencies and numerous related articles. Myers is a graduate of Knox College (BA), University of Illinois at Springfield (MPA), and University of Nevada, Las Vegas (Ph.D.) Email: [email protected]; Blue Sky: @nagremy1980.bsky.social 

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