The Value of Evidence-Based Decisions

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ASPA as an organization.

By Thomas E. Poulin
August 11, 2025

Public administrators face an unbeatable obstacle – they must address unlimited evolving challenges with limited resources. To optimize results they must think strategically and critically, making those decisions most likely to create value for the community. The use of evidence-based decisions can support public administrators in leveraging relevant information towards making choices that best serve the community.

The use of robust information in organizational decision-making is often attributed to Daniel McCallum, a 19th-century United States railroad superintendent. Railroads were among the first complex large-scale interstate commercial operations, emerging during the Industrial Era. While the military, the shipping industry and those engaged in trade unquestionably shared information in reports, McCallum was the first to explain the potential value of this in his 1856 annual report to the railroad’s stockholders. He reported that it might be possible for an individual with limited responsibilities in a restricted area to make informed decisions, but those at higher levels were unlikely to be as well informed. This would inhibit their decision-making, hindering success. McCallum proposed a systematic approach to collecting, collating and analyzing data, supporting evidence-based decision-making, thereby supporting more effective and efficient operations.

Modes of Evidence-Based Decisions

There are three forms of evidence-based decisions to be considered: data-driven, research-driven and data-informed. Conceptually they are related but there are substantive differences to be considered.

Data-Driven Decisions: Data-driven decisions are based on the analysis and evaluation of existing data or that which might be collected in the future. This data might be current or archival data from a public administrator’s own agency or it might be from other settings where relevant data exists and is accessible. This data can be an invaluable tool. Sadly, many organizations collect reams of data but never organize and analyze it for use in decision-making. Frequently, this data sits as an untapped resource of inestimable value.

Research-Driven Decisions: Research-driven decisions are made using the scientific method to create and understand relationships. This approach requires the development of statistically testable hypotheses or qualitative research propositions. Using this approach requires higher-level research design and analysis skills than might be found in many agencies. However, if used properly, this approach can be effective in making stronger evidence-based decisions that support stronger outcomes.

Data-Informed Decisions: Data-informed decisions rely on data and research; however, rather than relying solely on numerical hard data, soft data such as intuition, personal experiences and individual perceptions are also factored in. This might take the form of senior agency leadership receiving data and recommendations then modifying them to mirror their conclusions. This approach might also include rejecting and replacing the evidence-based decisions entirely. Anecdotally, this has been effective in some instances but there is the potential for this approach to drive sub-optimal outcomes or outright failure. Consequently, this approach must be used with great discretion and reflection.

The Confounding Effects of Professional Judgment

Even in agencies that vocally support evidence-based decision-making and use one of these decision-making modalities, there exists the potential for the evidence to be muddied through ineffective leadership. This might be attributable to personal preferences, inflexible organizational policies or a dysfunctional organizational culture. Too often, sub-optimal outcomes are the product of professional judgment that derails an informed rational decision-making process.

The HiPPO Effect is a sardonic view of decision-making; HiPPO refers to the “Highest Paid Person’s Opinion.” Public agencies that defer completely to the opinions of top leadership regardless of the evidence might underperform. Certainly, agency leadership must reserve the authority to make a final decision in substantive matters. It is also possible that these opinions hold nuggets of value based on unique experiences. It is not that the opinions of executive leadership are without value. Nonetheless, concerns arise when all other evidence is rejected in deference to a powerful individual’s position or status in the agency.

Another concern is the emergence of the Nirvana Fallacy. Public agencies exist in dynamic environments. Facing new and emerging circumstances requires some level of risk. There are individuals and agency cultures that have become wholly risk-averse, fearful not only of failure but even of imperfect results. The Nirvana Fallacy exists when a workable solution is rejected because it is imperfect, regardless of evidence that it might succeed. Instead, they seek the perfect solution that in all probability does not exist. Success is usually not the outcome of a perfect solution but the combined outcomes of multiple overlapping imperfect decisions.

Lessons for the Public Administrator

Public administrators at all levels of every agency will make countless decisions over their careers. Each decision should support more effective, efficient and responsive public services. To increase the probability of making the right decision at the right time, it will be necessary to consider the right information. This information should be credible to support success and sufficiently strong to justify decisions to higher authorities. The use of evidence-based decisions rather than relying too heavily if not entirely on reputation, position, relationships or professional status can be a powerful tool for providing higher-quality services valued by the community.

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Author: Thomas E. Poulin, PhD, SHRM-CP, PSHRA-CP, is a training and development consultant and part-time public administration faculty at Columbia Southern University. He served in local government and non-profits for more than 30 years and has taught public administration and related topics for over 20. He may be reached at [email protected].

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