The Word of the Day Is: Uncertainty

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ASPA as an organization.

By Andrew Kleine
December 12, 2025

From Sesame Street to Main Street, fiscal fears have us looking for ways to cope

When I ask local budget and finance officials what is on their minds these days, the word I hear most often is “uncertainty.” These people are relied upon to make budgets balance, collect revenue and control costs and maintain bond ratings. When they can get a fix on a problem, they are skilled at solving it. When they are confronted with ambiguity, their instinct for caution can come into conflict with political pressure for action. The world is asking: Can we afford it? “I don’t know” is not what it wants to hear.

This decade has delivered a cavalcade of craziness to local governments: a global pandemic, extreme political swings, surging inflation and now back and forth tariff policies and threats to federal funding. What is next? Who knows. The critical question is, How do we cope?

I have written before about financial resilience and how governments should prepare for and respond to the inevitable reversals of fortune, such as recessions, natural disasters and the loss of a major employer. My advice has been to do scenario planning, build up reserves, diversify revenues and bring everyone to the table to find efficiencies and prioritize spending. Those are all important steps, but with this column I want to approach uncertainty less nuts and bolts and more holistically. At a time when so much about the future is unknown, how can we best manage ourselves, lead our organizations and connect with our communities? I have five ideas to start what I expect to be an ongoing conversation as fiscal, economic and political events continue to unfold.

Take care of yourself first. Government finance officers are people too (really, they are). For most people, uncertainty causes stress and anxiety, which can be exacerbated by the pressures of council hearings and media attention. Self-care equips us to survive and thrive when the going gets tough. I have been a county administrator and city budget director, so I know from stress. Following a routine of healthy sleep, diet and exercise helped me stay calm, alert and positive, without coffee ever passing my lips. Social connection with supportive people, including professional counterparts, is a great way to prevent isolation and blow off steam, as are hobbies, volunteering and using your leave time to disconnect (believe me, your colleagues will make do and even grow in your absence).

Focus on what you can control. This is common advice from psychologists for dealing with personal uncertainty and it also applies to organizations. Instead of complaining or hoping to be rescued, finance officers should gather as much information as they can, accept that some things are not knowable and take action within their sphere of authority. A study by University College London found that uncertainty can cause more stress than inevitable pain: people told they had a 100 percent chance of receiving an electric shock experienced less stress than those with a 50 percent chance. Making budget changes needed to mitigate potential fiscal threats, ripping off the band aid as it were, is healthier than prolonging the guessing game.

Communicate honestly and hopefully. Uncertainty breeds fear and feelings of helplessness. The British printed 2.5 million copies of the “Keep Calm and Carry On” poster during World War II, but nearly all remained in cold storage and were eventually pulped, probably because that message is not what anyone wants to be told in a crisis. As a leader, you win trust by sharing what you know and do not know, listening to people’s questions and concerns and clearly articulating what will be required and expected moving forward. Communicate frequently and keep your message as positive as you can. Remember that “We are all adults here”: if the plan calls for hard changes, say so and do not be embarrassed to explain how the changes could benefit the organization and community long term.

Lead from values. During times of uncertainty, we can feel like we are being buffeted by swirling winds. Our instinct is to reach for something sturdy to hold onto. Organizations can and must adapt to changing circumstances and also remain steadfast in pursuing the mission and upholding values. One way to pull off this trick is to shift the orientation of our plans from process to outcomes. Where process dictates the steps to take toward a goal, outcomes allow us more room for creativity. From a budgeting perspective, an outcome focus may help to achieve the same goals more cost effectively by welcoming choices and tradeoffs that were previously off the table or even off the radar.

Realign around risk. When budgets get out of whack, attention turns immediately to two options: cut costs or raise revenue. There is a third option to consider: manage risk. This option might not balance this year’s budget, but it can reduce the chances of future shortfalls. I include risk management on this list not to dictate a set of policies and practices or to sell you insurance. My aim is to encourage a different mindset among finance officers and especially elected officials: not to be risk averse but risk aware. Humans are capable of anticipating and even estimating the likelihood of adverse events. Resiliency starts with using this information to be prepared.

Finance officers, this is your moment. All eyes are on you, looking for guidance. It is a huge responsibility and also an opportunity to strengthen your organization for the long term.

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Author: Andrew Kleine is Managing Director for Government & Public Sector at EY-Parthenon, Ernst & Young LLP. He is the author of City on the Line: How Baltimore Transformed Its Budget to Beat the Great Recession and Deliver Outcomes (Bloomsbury, 2018) and has served as a county administrator and city budget director. His email is [email protected] and his X (formerly Twitter) handle is @awkleine.

The views reflected in this article are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Ernst & Young LLP or other members of the global EY organization.

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